The Denver MLS trends data for November 2021 are now out. The bottom line is that it’s similar to what we’ve been seeing for a while now—an extreme seller’s market. Active listings have plummeted from 3400 in November 2020 to 2250 in November 2021, a 30% year-over-year decline. A balanced market is 15K-17K homes for sale, which is why the low supply and high demand are driving prices and rents upwards.
In addition to low inventory, we’re also seeing the highest inflation since the mid-1980s. Historically, real estate is a great hedge against inflation, which is why it’s still a good time to buy. As you’re making goals for this year, figure out how to incorporate the changing market and economic conditions into your investing strategy. We can’t change the market, but we can look at the trends and make a plan that fits your situation.
- Listen to the podcast “#333: Denver Real Estate MLS Market Stats- November 2021” on the Denver Real Estate Investing Podcast
- Watch the YouTube video (at the bottom).
- Read the blog post. Note, the blog is an executive summary. Get the in-depth breakdown from the podcast or video.
November 2021 Denver Market Stats with Ideas and Observations
- The number of active listings just continues to plummet.
- We’re down 34% from Nov ’20.
- We ended the month with just active 2,250 homes and condos.
- The number of new listings YTD is not off that much from historical trend; we’re just selling the homes faster than we did in the past. Must be all of the great digital marketing we’re all doing.
- Historically, Sept – Dec is the best time for buyers. I think that is true. It’s going to be a really challenging spring ’22; likely even lower inventory and multiple offer situations than Spring ’21.
- The number of under contract homes at the end of Nov ’21 was +3% from Nov ’20. Encouraging.
- The number of closed homes was down 9% from prior year.
- I think this is just a factor of lack of supply; there is plenty of demand.
- Despite the modest increase in interest rates, the buyer demand is not slowing.
- The average price in Nov ’21 was up 15% from Nov ’20.
- Sooner or later the mortgage rates will go up around 0.5% (I think by mid 2022), and affordability will take some steam out of the market.
- Usually there’s less showing traffic around the holidays. This year, we’re seeing showing traffic well above the historical trend.
Source: The above executive summary is from Lon Welsh of Your Castle Real Estate.
Wave of Foreclosures Unlikely in Denver
The Denver Post recently published an article titled “Foreclosure wave not in the cards as mortgage relief programs end” that details why there won’t be an uptick in the number of foreclosures. An excerpted explanation is below:
There will be somewhere around 180,000 mortgages in foreclosures this year, said Rick Sharga, an executive vice president with RealtyTrac. Before the pandemic, foreclosures were averaging closer to 500,000 a year, Sharga said.
And although he predicts foreclosures will rise sharply in the months ahead on a percentage basis, it will be from a very low base. It won’t be until late next year when the volume returns to historic levels.
A big reason foreclosures won’t swamp the market is that many troubled borrowers have enough equity in their homes to sell and move on, even if that isn’t their preferred course. And buyers are waiting to snap up any that do show up.
RealtyTrac, in an analysis released Wednesday, estimates that 73% of borrowers currently in foreclosure have equity of 20% or more, while 28% have equity greater than 50% in the third quarter.Aldo Svaldi, The Denver Post
Denver Housing Trends November 2021
Showing per Active Listing Trends for Denver
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Denver Real Estate MLS Market Stats – November 2021
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